Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.007432 0.008378 0.009413 0.010633 0.012033 0.013594 0.015470
2024-10-13 0.006183 0.007525 0.009124 0.011184 0.013781 0.016970 0.021213
2024-10-20 0.005129 0.006552 0.008343 0.010787 0.014066 0.018360 0.024485
2024-10-27 0.004432 0.005883 0.007793 0.010523 0.014377 0.019702 0.027756
2024-11-03 0.004000 0.005490 0.007528 0.010563 0.015045 0.021545 0.031913
2024-11-10 0.003773 0.005341 0.007561 0.010999 0.016296 0.024338 0.037841
2024-11-17 0.003419 0.004966 0.007222 0.010830 0.016596 0.025701 0.041685
2024-11-24 0.003172 0.004720 0.007041 0.010868 0.017200 0.027587 0.046627
2024-12-01 0.002900 0.004407 0.006723 0.010646 0.017340 0.028701 0.050360
2024-12-08 0.002759 0.004283 0.006685 0.010869 0.018237 0.031195 0.056934
2024-12-15 0.002586 0.004091 0.006518 0.010852 0.018708 0.032975 0.062407
2024-12-22 0.002346 0.003771 0.006111 0.010378 0.018300 0.033085 0.064578
2024-12-29 0.002192 0.003588 0.005928 0.010300 0.018646 0.034724 0.070284
2025-01-05 0.002152 0.003594 0.006073 0.010834 0.020223 0.038990 0.082385
2025-01-12 0.001973 0.003345 0.005746 0.010451 0.019954 0.039478 0.086154
2025-01-19 0.001831 0.003150 0.005499 0.010196 0.019910 0.040425 0.091140
2025-01-26 0.001742 0.003045 0.005408 0.010235 0.020475 0.042750 0.099859
2025-02-02 0.001711 0.003041 0.005503 0.010655 0.021897 0.047178 0.114713
2025-02-09 0.001609 0.002899 0.005324 0.010493 0.022025 0.048643 0.122117
2025-02-16 0.001540 0.002812 0.005244 0.010530 0.022601 0.051248 0.133134
2025-02-23 0.001448 0.002676 0.005056 0.010315 0.022570 0.052360 0.140139
2025-03-02 0.001408 0.002639 0.005064 0.010530 0.023576 0.056213 0.155985
2025-03-09 0.001348 0.002556 0.004973 0.010514 0.024021 0.058682 0.168173